Research
Structured inquiry into the geopolitical dynamics, security challenges, and democratic processes shaping Eastern Europe, the Black Sea region, and beyond.
Geopolitics and Strategic Competition
How do great powers project influence? What are the mechanisms — military, economic, institutional, normative, digital — through which spheres of influence are built and contested? We analyse the multi-modal nature of contemporary geopolitical competition and develop frameworks for understanding how regional orders are shaped by great power strategies.
Security Policy and Defence
European security is being reconfigured in the aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We study the evolving security architecture in Europe, NATO's strategic adaptation, defence policy reform, and the security challenges facing small states and buffer zones between competing power blocs.
Democracy and Institutions
What makes democracies resilient — and what drives democratic backsliding? We investigate how authoritarian influence diffuses across borders, how illiberal governance consolidates, and what strategies are available to strengthen democratic institutions in contested political environments.
Regional Orders
The South Caucasus, Black Sea region, and Central Asia are laboratories of geopolitical contestation. We study how small states navigate between competing great powers, how regional orders emerge and dissolve, and how the EU neighbourhood policy adapts to a shifting strategic landscape.
Original Frameworks
Our research has produced several original analytical frameworks that are used in academic and policy contexts.
MMSOI
Multi-Modal Spheres of Influence — a five-dimensional framework analysing how great powers project influence through Military, Economic, Institutional, Normative, and Digital-Technological modalities.
HEDGEmonic Order
A framework for understanding how small states pursue hedging strategies between competing great powers, balancing alignment and autonomy in multipolar regional settings.
Bandwagoning by Stealth
Explains how states can gradually align with a dominant power through incremental, often covert policy adjustments rather than overt alliance shifts.
Polycrisis Realism
An IR theory framework addressing how simultaneous, interconnected crises reshape state behaviour, institutional resilience, and the structure of international order.
Current Projects
JENA-CAUC 2.0: Geopolitics and Transformation in the South Caucasus
Strategic foresight modelling for South Caucasus instability post-Zeitenwende. Development of regional early-warning indicators and scenario analysis for evolving geopolitical dynamics.
REUNIR: Strengthening the EU's Future Members
Developing military and democratic risk-scanning methodology for EU candidate countries. Policy recommendations for strengthening the EU's external action toolbox.